NAVIGATING THE TECHNOLOGY SECURITY DILEMMA IN US-CHINA RELATIONS: AN INDONESIAN PERSPECTIVE

Abstract

This paper studies the technology security dilemma in the context of the strategic rivalry between the United States and China and its effects on Indonesia. Using a qualitative methodology and analyzing documents and reports from government, international agencies, and other third parties, this paper shows that advanced technologies such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence have become critical to economic development and national security; major powers increasingly implement restrictive policies to protect their technological progress. These measures frequently generate mutual suspicion and escalation, creating a spiral of reactions similar to the security dilemma that goes beyond major powers and affects middle powers like Indonesia. Using a neorealist framework, this study argues that the competition over technology is shaped by the structure of the international system, especially the unequal distribution of material capabilities. At the same time, the dual-use nature of emerging technologies increases uncertainty, as technological development can serve both civilian and military purposes. This condition encourages states to adopt precautionary and sometimes restrictive policies, such as export controls and technological decoupling. As a middle power, Indonesia faces strategic vulnerability because of its dependence on foreign technology and limited domestic industrial capacity. This paper highlights how Indonesia is affected by major powers' policies and, therefore, must actively navigate between them to secure its national interests. In response, this research recommends several strategic approaches for Indonesia, including integrating technology issues into wider economic diplomacy and trade negotiations, diversifying international partnerships, actively engaging in international cooperation frameworks, and using its strategic assets as bargaining leverage. This paper contributes by extending the security dilemma framework to critical technology competition and providing an Indonesia-focused analysis of how a middle power should manage the technology rivalry while protecting its strategic autonomy.